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Strategy #0000000107 · Financial text and event signals

Negative tone in financial news
Enter negative-word share, threshold, basket returns and costs to inspect the activated assumed spread.

Tetlock and later research use news-column or corporate-text tone as proxies for sentiment and information response. General dictionaries can misclassify neutral financial terms as negative, motivating finance-specific Loughran–McDonald word lists. A model may use dictionaries, FinBERT or other NLP, but classification quality and text provenance need separate validation.

Beginner-friendlyAbout 8 minutesEvidence and practical analysis

Three ways in

Understand the story. Then inspect the risk.

Start with a familiar situation, check the payoff, then test how the numbers change.

The idea · in two minutes

When negative-word share crosses a threshold, what is the supplied event-spread scenario?

Tetlock and later research use news-column or corporate-text tone as proxies for sentiment and information response. General dictionaries can misclassify neutral financial terms as negative, motivating finance-specific Loughran–McDonald word lists. A model may use dictionaries, FinBERT or other NLP, but classification quality and text provenance need separate validation.

Enter negative-word share, threshold, basket returns and costs to inspect the activated assumed spread.

No full-text news, lexicon or NLP model is connected; stale republications, context and source reliability are not modelled.

  • Input assumptionsEnter negative-word share, threshold, basket returns and costs to inspect the activated assumed spread.
  • Model outputNo full-text news, lexicon or NLP model is connected; stale republications, context and source reliability are not modelled.

Illustrative research examples only. They are not live signals or a recommendation.

Variants · same family, different risk levers

Data proxies, holding periods and portfolio construction affect signal interpretation.

Compare measurement and implementation assumptions.

Related strategyRelationshipWhat changesNew cost or risk
Base scenarioManual inputsTetlock and later research use news-column or corporate-text tone as proxies for sentiment and information response. General dictionaries can misclassify neutral financial terms as negative, motivating finance-specific Loughran–McDonald word lists. A model may use dictionaries, FinBERT or other NLP, but classification quality and text provenance need separate validation.No full-text news, lexicon or NLP model is connected; stale republications, context and source reliability are not modelled.
Conservative versionHigher thresholdRaise signal/sample thresholds and reduce exposure.May reduce eligible names.
Validation versionOut-of-sample reviewFreeze definitions before time-ordered evaluation.Needs clean, representative data.

No full-text news, lexicon or NLP model is connected; stale republications, context and source reliability are not modelled.

Read beyond the summary

References

Primary sources and research used to describe the strategy and its limits.

  1. 01Tetlock (2007), Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Marketresearch