Strategy #0000000106 · Political and macro factors
Presidential economic approval sensitivity
Set approval change, high/low betas and assumed basket returns to compare low versus high beta.
Research builds a monthly index of presidential economic approval and estimates stock betas to its changes. A higher beta indicates closer return co-movement with the incumbent administration’s perceived policy alignment; the study finds higher future returns among low-beta stocks, not a simple partisan trade. Politics, industry exposure and estimation windows can change.
No polling, stock returns or beta estimates are loaded; results imply neither political causality nor party preference.
Three ways in
Understand the story. Then inspect the risk.
Start with a familiar situation, check the payoff, then test how the numbers change.
The idea · in two minutes
What assumed return spread separates high- and low-sensitivity stocks to economic approval?
Research builds a monthly index of presidential economic approval and estimates stock betas to its changes. A higher beta indicates closer return co-movement with the incumbent administration’s perceived policy alignment; the study finds higher future returns among low-beta stocks, not a simple partisan trade. Politics, industry exposure and estimation windows can change.
Set approval change, high/low betas and assumed basket returns to compare low versus high beta.
No polling, stock returns or beta estimates are loaded; results imply neither political causality nor party preference.
- Input assumptionsSet approval change, high/low betas and assumed basket returns to compare low versus high beta.
- Model outputNo polling, stock returns or beta estimates are loaded; results imply neither political causality nor party preference.
Illustrative research examples only. They are not live signals or a recommendation.
The mechanics · payoff and exposure
\beta_{approval,i}=\frac{Cov(R_i,\Delta PEAR)}{Var(\Delta PEAR)}
PEAR is the presidential economic approval rating index; basket returns are user-entered, not estimated here.
Greeks: the directional intuition
- 訊號
- Measures sensitivity to implied volatility.
- 資料
- Measures sensitivity to implied volatility.
- 執行
- Measures sensitivity to implied volatility.
\beta_{approval,i}=\frac{Cov(R_i,\Delta PEAR)}{Var(\Delta PEAR)}
Practical context · published observations
Presidential economic approval sensitivity: read the record with its caveats.
The chart uses the published figures or explicitly labelled study inputs below. A historical index or model replay is not the same as an investor’s realised account return.
No polling, stock returns or beta estimates are loaded; results imply neither political causality nor party preference. Source ↗ · Methodology ↗
Change assumptions and inspect the scenario
Inputs illustrate the strategy mechanics; they are not live quotes, forecasts or investment advice.
Variants · same family, different risk levers
Data proxies, holding periods and portfolio construction affect signal interpretation.
Compare measurement and implementation assumptions.
| Related strategy | Relationship | What changes | New cost or risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base scenario | Manual inputs | Research builds a monthly index of presidential economic approval and estimates stock betas to its changes. A higher beta indicates closer return co-movement with the incumbent administration’s perceived policy alignment; the study finds higher future returns among low-beta stocks, not a simple partisan trade. Politics, industry exposure and estimation windows can change. | No polling, stock returns or beta estimates are loaded; results imply neither political causality nor party preference. |
| Conservative version | Higher threshold | Raise signal/sample thresholds and reduce exposure. | May reduce eligible names. |
| Validation version | Out-of-sample review | Freeze definitions before time-ordered evaluation. | Needs clean, representative data. |
No polling, stock returns or beta estimates are loaded; results imply neither political causality nor party preference.
Read beyond the summary
References
Primary sources and research used to describe the strategy and its limits.